15-Jun-2026
The NPCC has released its Q4 2025/26 firearms licensing data, and if you've been waiting months for a certificate renewal, it probably won't surprise you. But the scale of the problem might.
We've gone through the numbers so you don't have to. Here are three things every certificate holder in England and Wales should know.
1. More than half of police forces are missing the target
The NPCC and Home Office set a clear aspiration: 80% of applications processed within four months. It's not a demanding benchmark. It's not even a legal requirement; it's an aspiration.
And yet, 23 out of 43 forces are failing to meet it.
The national average sits at just 68.7%. That means, across the board, roughly a third of applicants are waiting longer than four months to have their paperwork processed. For many, the wait is considerably longer than that.
Forces like Cheshire, Merseyside, and Derbyshire are processing well above 95% of applications within the target window, proving it can be done.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, several forces are completing fewer than one in three applications on time. The gap between the best and worst performers is enormous, and it raises a fair question about whether the system is being resourced and managed consistently across the country.
2. Where you live decides how long you wait
This is the bit that frustrates people the most. Your experience of the licensing system depends almost entirely on which police force area you happen to live in.
If you're in Cheshire, nearly 99% of applications are processed within the four-month window. If you're across the country in Sussex, that figure drops to around 25%. Same process, same forms, same legal framework, wildly different outcomes.
Nine forces are completing fewer than 35% of applications on time. That's not a minor delay; that's a system where the majority of applicants are left waiting well beyond what's considered acceptable. And these aren't small, under-resourced rural forces; some of the worst performers serve large populations.
It's a genuine postcode lottery, and for certificate holders who rely on their firearms for work, pest control, or land management, these delays aren't just an inconvenience. They can have a real impact on livelihoods.
3. Over 3,000 people are stuck on temporary permits
When a force can't process a renewal before the existing certificate expires, they issue a temporary permit. It keeps you legal, but it's a sticking plaster, not a solution.
Right now, there are over 3,000 temporary permits in circulation across England and Wales. Cambridgeshire alone accounts for nearly 780 of them, with Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, and Humberside each running into the hundreds.
Temporary permits are meant to be a rare exception, not a routine part of the system. When you see numbers like these, it tells you that backlogs aren't a short-term blip, they're baked into how some forces are operating. And while a temporary permit keeps you on the right side of the law, it doesn't help if you're trying to buy or sell a firearm through the normal channels, or if a dealer needs to verify your certificate details.
What does this mean for the shooting community?
There are roughly 476,000 certificate holders across England and Wales. That's a significant number of people who depend on a licensing system that, in too many areas, simply isn't keeping up.
The NPCC has acknowledged that a new national system is in development, and future data releases will separate grant and renewal figures, which should give a clearer picture of where the bottlenecks actually sit. That's a step in the right direction.
But for now, the message from these figures is clear: the system works well in some places and poorly in others, and which one you get is down to luck rather than anything you can control.
If you're currently waiting on an application, the best thing you can do is stay on top of it. Submit your renewal in good time, keep your paperwork in order, and don't be afraid to follow up with your licensing department if things go quiet.
We'll keep watching the data and reporting back. It matters.
Data source: NPCC Firearms Licensing Q4 2025/26, drawn from the National Firearms Licensing Management System (NFLMS), 23 March 2026.
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